Who Am I?
Much like the bag in the fridge labeled "dead dove don't eat" contained exactly what you'd expect it to contain, I am exactly who this blog says I am: Just Some Guy. I like mathematics and I like football so this is where those two collide.
For example. the image above I threw together for fun. I wasn't even planning on sharing it. But then I thought, maybe I should and here it is... all fancy and clean for my zero readers. I am currently writing up about how I feel about each team coming into the 2025 season and this chart helps me put into perspective how they all did in the 2024 season. The x-axis is their offensive DVOA ranking and the y-axis is their defensive DVOA ranking. Which means the lower the better. So, for example, the Eagles had the #1 ranked defensive dvoa last season but the #13 ranked offensive DVOA... which is interesting to me. Their offense was middle of the pack but their defense was so dominant that it didn't matter.
What is DVOA? DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It is a stat created by the folks at football outsiders (https://ftnfantasy.com). I have a lot of different data sources I like to play with and FTN is a fun one mainly because DVOA is a easy way to look at teams' success on multiple fronts. There is a useful explainer here
There... Clear? Great.
I say all this to point out that though I do like playing with data and I plan on presenting some of my own findings and projections eventually, I take zero credit for DVOA. Again, it is purely the brain child of FTN and I appreciate them letting dorks like me download their datasets so easily.
Anyway, like I said, it's a pretty good indicator of a team's overall performance. For example, the Bengals are pretty far to the right but really low which means they had a strong offense but weak defense... which tracks. Teams in the lower left were bad across the board... like the Patriots, Giants, and Browns, which tracks. The Panthers having the worst defense in the league is unsurprising but frankly, the Jaguars being right behind them is. Admittedly, I don't give that team a ton of my attention but I didn't realize they were that bad... And it's this kind of information I find interesting. I consume a bunch of NFL podcasts and articles and they're all talking about Trevor Lawrence making a leap and the offense gelling but I never hear them talk about the defense... aside from Travis Hunter. To be fair, a lot of that media is skewed toward fantasy football or gambling so offense is always going to get more attention. A quick google search told me they signed Jourdan Lewis at CB and Eric Murray at safety. They did draft 4 and a half defensive guys so maybe they will all contribute... but it's worth keeping an eye on. If that defense doesn't make some strides, it won't matter how good Trevor Lawrence is (see: the Bengals).
The Texans are another interesting one with the #3 ranked defense but the #26 ranked offense. Coming into the season all we talked about was C.J. Stroud and that offense but it just didn't... happen. Now, a lot of that is put at the feet of Bobby Slowik, who has been shown the door, but I always raise a single eyebrow when credit or blame goes to exactly one person. No... I'm not new to sports media and I understand that we do that all the time, but it's worth noting going into next season.
Anyway, that's about what this site will be. I plan on revisiting this chart some more as well as Warren Sharp's strength of schedule to articulate my opinion of the upcoming season a little better.