The Most Lopsided Teams in the NFL
My last post focused on the offensive/defensive DVOA rankings for all 32 teams in the NFL last season. I made a few comments about a couple teams but today I want to dig a little deeper. Specifically, I want to look at the teams with the biggest difference between their offensive and defensive DVOA ranking:
The top teams are no surprise here, and happen to be the teams I mentioned in my last post. Houston had the #3 ranked defense but the #26 ranked offense with a discrepancy of 23. This is particularly surprising how hyped C.J. Stroud was coming into the season. Again, perhaps it's all Slowik's fault. Perhaps Stroud needs to podcast less... who knows. At the time of typing this Joe Mixon is injured... so that's not going to help the offense any. Also, I didn't like trading away Tunsil. Sure, he led the league in accepted penalties, but he is still a fantastic pass blocker so losing him can't help either. But how much help do they need? After all, their defense was the third best in the league by this metric and there's little reason to believe they won't be just as good. They went 10-7 last year, winning their division with ease. Interesting factoid: they scored the same amount of points as they allowed: 372. Is that interesting? I think so. Anyway, despite the teams in their division looking better on paper (it's July. All teams look better on paper. Except the Browns), The Texans will probably win the division again and make the playoffs. They certainly have a playoff caliber defense and a (theoretically) playoff caliber quarterback.
The Bengals are the Bizarro to the Texans' Superman. They had the #5 ranked offense but the #27 ranked defense with a discrepancy of 23. Burrow had a career season and it just... didn't matter. Since I mentioned points for and against above, I'll do it here: The Bengals scored 472 points but allowed 434. That's not okay. So, like the Texans, they just need some improvement from one side of the ball. Should be easy, right? Draft some guys, sign some guys, pay Trey Hendrickson... but the thing is, it's not easy to maintain dominance on one side of the ball from season to season. It's one thing to say the Bengals offense will pick up where they left off, but it's another thing entirely for it to happen. Injuries aside, expecting Joe Burrow to throw for nearly 5,000 yards and 43 touchdowns again is asking a lot. Can he do it? Sure. But it's not a guarantee. Plus, the Bengals have a tougher division than the Texans. Sure, the Browns look like a dumpster fire but the Ravens are great and the Steelers are never an easy out (especially in the division).
If the Bengals are the Bizarro to the Texans' Superman then The Washington Commanders are Connor Kent to the Texans. In some ways a clone of the Texans but also a byproduct of the machinations of a sick and twisted billionaire narcissist. Okay, the analogy kind of falls apart if you think about it, as they are more like a clone of the Bengals with their thrilling offense and not-so-good defense. And Bizarro didn't have a clone, I don't think. But I wanted to make a point about having a revelation rookie QB being super hyped going into his second season... so go with me on this. The Commanders had the #6 ranked offense but the #23 ranked defense with a discrepancy of 17. Their offense literally set records, especially with converting 87% percent of their 4th downs. Now, every football talking head will tell you that they are due for regression. Combined with OC Kingsbury's bad trend of getting figured out late in the season when he helmed the Cardinals, there are several signs pointing to an offensive regression. But that would be okay if they got some improvement from their defense. Heck the Chiefs ranked #8 on offense and #12 on defense and went 15-2. Now, they're the Chiefs, of course and went 11-0 in one score games (That failed 4th and 9 conversion by Ertz against the Steelers would have 100% been called a first down for the Chiefs, by the way). Is asking the Commanders defense to move up from 23 to the teens a lot? I don't think so.
The Rams... I don't have a Superman comparison for you here. They ranked #10 on offense and #26 on defense with a difference of 16. They finished 10-7 and barely squeaked into the playoffs, edging out the Seahawks. They traded away one aging receiver for another, though I do think they did upgrade. As far as their defense goes, I'm surprised their DVOA is so low. They only allowed 386 points, which is one more than Tampa Bay, who ranked 16th (goes to show how little I actually know about DVOA). The thing is, I just trust the Rams. If their key players stay healthy, specifically Stafford, they'll be in it. Stafford, as it currently stands is sidelined with back soreness. Now, McVay has assured us that it's just a precaution but still... it's worrisome. A 37 year old with chronic back issues? Been there, done that. I do think their division will be tough though. Perhaps the Seahawks won't be able to tap into Darnold like the Vikings did, but what if they do? And the Cardinals have proved to be frisky and don't sleep on the 49ers. Everyone's sleeping on the 49ers. Well I'm not Doug!
Rounding out our top 5 is the Atlanta Falcons. They had the #14 ranked offense and #29 ranked defense with a difference of 15. So... it looks like they have a long way to go. However...it can't be overstated just how bad Kirk Cousins was for them last year. It looks like Penix has no choice to be an upgrade, it's just a question of how much of an upgrade. As for the defense, it can't be said they haven't addressed it, having picked two edge rushers in the first round, but will that be enough. Their division looks like one of the two weakest divisions in football which helps.
So there's the top five most lopsided teams in the 2024 season. I'm considering doing the top five most balanced teams, but it's less interesting than you think. Being ranked 30th for both offense and defense is balanced, yes... but that doesn't mean you don't still suck (cough cough Patriots).