How Good Is Terry McLaurin — And Should Your Team Trade for Him?
Very. Yes.
Oh you're expecting more? Okay. I have a friend who is a Commanders fan. He texted me a few days ago asking if he should be worried about the Terry McLaurin contract situation. I texted him this:
Terry is and has been one of the Washington Commanders best player at his position for the past six season (or maybe five. His rookie year wasn't exactly elite). It would make no sense to move on from him now that he finally has a good quarterback throwing to him.
Then, yesterday I saw that Terry McLaurin officially requested a trade. So I texted my friend this:
And this is not (completely) understatement. I'm still not convinced the Commanders are ultimately going to trade him. However, it's obvious that they are not meeting his price point and if a trade partner meets their price point then... yeah... he gone!
So who will trade for him? Who should trade for him? Do you want your team to? (Spoiler alert: I do. I want my team to offer their current #1 WR for Terry McLaurin straight up). The thing about Terry McLaurin is that he's never really popped off the stat sheet. But the other thing about Terry McLaurin is that (as I alluded to above) his quarterbacks before this season have been a collection of glorified backups and/or has-beens. Prior to the electrifying Jayden Daniels the quarterbacks throwing balls to McLaurin have been: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell. Yeah...
In addition to (or because of) the lack luster play, the team just hasn't been that good. Their record since 2019 (McLaurin's rookie year) 3-13, 7-9, 7-10, 8-8-1, 4-14 before going 12-5 last year. Through that all, however, Terry has risen as a respectable receiver. Let's look at some of his stats.
| Year | Targets | Rec | Yds | TDs | Yards/Route Run | EPA | Fantasy Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 93 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 9.882 | 0 | 200.9 |
| 20 | 134 | 87 | 1,118 | 4 | 8.343 | 37.51 | 233.8 |
| 21 | 131 | 77 | 1,053 | 5 | 1.936 | 21.137 | 213.5 |
| 22 | 120 | 77 | 1,191 | 5 | 2.115 | 51.083 | 229.0 |
| 23 | 132 | 79 | 1,002 | 4 | 1.629 | 18.454 | 203.2 |
| 24 | 117 | 82 | 1,096 | 13 | 2.288 | 71.768 | 269.8 |
The first thing that stands out is that 2024 was easily his best season. He didn't have the most yards of his career, but he had the most touchdowns (by a lot) and he was the most efficient. EPA is another proprietary formula from the football outsiders that stands for Expected Points Added, which is a metric that quantifies the impact of each play on a team's probability of scoring. (Don't ask me why it's 0 in 2019. That must be a mistake). But it's high in 2024. In fact, it was third among wide receivers last season, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jamarr Chase.
"So he's only good when a good QB is throwing to him." Well no.. but yeah but that's true for everyone. It's why teams care that their QB is good. WR's rely on the QB... QB's rely on the OL... as do RBs... it's a complicated, intricate team sport. For a little more context, lets look at how he ranked against all wide receivers:
| Year | Total WRs | TAR | REC | YDS | TD | YPRR | EPA | FPTS | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 188 | 46 | 52 | 32 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 51 | 57 |
| 2020 | 194 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 61 | 56 | 39 | 30 | 41 |
| 2021 | 204 | 16 | 24 | 20 | 40 | 30 | 74 | 40 | 57 |
| 2022 | 183 | 22 | 25 | 10 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 28 | 43 |
| 2023 | 180 | 19 | 24 | 28 | 54 | 59 | 41 | 53 | 71 |
| 2024 | 185 | 22 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 29 |
So again, 2024 sticks out like a sore thumb. He has always shown talent and skill but last year he was able to really produce with it. But is he elite? Should teams give up legitimate draft capital or assets to get him?
I looked at some wide receivers that I consider his peers. Here's who I chose. and why
| Player | Why They're a Peer |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | Recently traded to NE Similar profile: sharp route-runner, target-heavy, aging. |
| D.K. Metcalf | Physical WR1, recently traded to PIT. Younger than Terry but similarly valued. |
| Davante Adams | Elite vet recently traded (again). Contract-heavy like Terry. |
| Brandon Aiyuk | Rising WR1, rumored in trade deals, analytics darling (YPRR, EPA). |
| Tee Higgins | Franchise-tagged WR2 with WR1 aspirations. Trade/re-sign tension similar to Terry. |
| D.J. Moore | Already traded (to CHI). Versatile WR, team centerpiece. Similar market value. |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Possession WR, high target share, signed new deal. Similar workload to Terry. |
| Calvin Ridley | Route tactician, changed teams, volatile production. WR2/WR1 hybrid like Terry. |
| Courtland Sutton | Similar athletic profile, rumored in trades, strong red zone weapon. |
| Chris Godwin | Highly productive, used inside/outside, reliable hands. WR2 with WR1 upside. |
| Tyreek Hill | Elite outlier, though aging. Was (is?) subject of trade rumors. |
Let's look at the same table above for the 2024 season but with the peers included.
| Player | Rec. | Yds | TDs | Yards/RR | EPA | FanPts | Pts/Game | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Mclaurin | WAS | 82 | 1096 | 13 | 2.288 | 71.768 | 269.80 | 15.871 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 73 | 911 | 10 | 2.119 | 57.350 | 224.10 | 18.675 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 81 | 1081 | 8 | 1.991 | 37.149 | 242.30 | 14.253 |
| Chris Godwin | TB | 50 | 585 | 5 | 2.522 | 35.514 | 138.70 | 19.814 |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | 64 | 1009 | 4 | 1.971 | 28.177 | 200.40 | 11.788 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 81 | 959 | 6 | 1.862 | 28.033 | 218.20 | 12.835 |
| D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 66 | 992 | 5 | 1.875 | 24.115 | 195.20 | 13.013 |
| Davante Adams | NYJ | 85 | 1063 | 8 | 2.105 | 19.675 | 239.30 | 17.093 |
| Stefon Diggs | HST | 47 | 496 | 3 | 1.922 | 18.082 | 121.92 | 15.240 |
For more visual learners, the radar chart:
Of course, there are caveats here. Godwin and Diggs got injured last season. Adams was traded midseason from one dumpster fire to another. Ridley was catching passes from Will Levis. The point is, these are all considered good players and Terry was number 1 among them in EPA, touchdowns and fantasy points and number 2 in receptions, yards and yards per route run.
So the question is, should your team trade for him? I think for most teams the answer is yes. Now, he will require a contract, but again, most teams should be willing to give him that. When I first heard about his trade request, my first reaction was the Patriots or the Steelers are the teams going to get him. But both those teams recently went out and got a new WR (both on my list above). Then I thought... oh shit, I hope KC doesn't get him. That would be... awesome for them and anyone who wants to see them in the Superbowl.
I for one want Terry McLaurin on my team and I'm interested to see where he lands, if anywhere. Again, I am of the mind that he will be a Commander next season. But hey, the NFL has surprised me plenty of times before.